The Ministry of energy and environment protection of Ukraine has published the results of the World Bank study assessment “Ukraine: Building Climate Resilience in Agricultural and Forestry”.

Climate change will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s development in the 21st century. The study examines the potential effects of climate change on key sectors of Ukraine’s economy based on several scenarios.

The researchers focused on the following two scenarios:

  1. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing measures to climate change adapt — global warming by 2.4 ° C by 2100;
  2. The “normal” course of events is a 4.3 ° C increase in temperature by 2100.

The main conclusions of the report

Оцінка впливу, можливостей та пріоритетів для України у зв’язку зі зміною клімату

Annual temperatures will change constantly over the centuries. This is likely to lead to changes in annual rainfall, higher summer temperatures, and increased droughts in southern and eastern Ukraine. According to one scenario, by the end of the century, there will be more than 100 tropical nights in the South and up to 135 summer days a year.

Every year the amount of precipitation will increase and become uneven. In winter their number will increase, and in summer, on the contrary, will decrease.

The frequency and intensity of abnormal weather conditions will increase: heat, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, rain, and river floods, droughts, hail, squalls, tornadoes, heavy snowfalls, icy rains, accumulation of wet snow.

Yields for all crops will fluctuate significantly.

Prolonged droughts will lead to deteriorating forest health, increased tree deaths, and forest fires. There will be a significant reduction in the area suitable for growing spruce, beech, pine, and oak.

Climate change will have a greater impact on some areas than on others. Cherkasy, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Vinnytsia will suffer the most.

Due to the decline in the cost of agricultural production, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Luhansk, and Zhytomyr regions suffer the greatest losses and increase poverty and inequality.

It is important for Ukraine to start implementing effective adaptation measures now. After all, this can significantly reduce the effects of climate change. Over the past 60 years, the climate in Ukraine has changed significantly. We are experiencing an acceleration of temperature growth by 0.4 – 0.6 C over the decades. Which, according to experts, is higher than the European average and several times higher than the world average.

In general, the experts analyzed:

  • how the climate in Ukraine will change during the 21st century;
  • how climate change will affect the country as a whole, agriculture, and forestry; 
  • adaptation measures that Ukraine has;
  • different scenarios of climate change by 2100 that will affect the development of Ukraine’s economy.

The study uses modern climate models and contains a detailed assessment with a climate forecast for more than 7,400 geographical points across the country. As a result of the project, climatic indicators throughout Ukraine were simulated, which will be stored on the servers of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and will be available to Ukrainian scientists. These data can be used to assess climate risks and plan adaptation measures in various sectors of the national economy, including at the regional level.

Source: The Ministry of energy and environment protection of Ukraine / Results of the World Bank study assessment “Ukraine: Building Climate Resilience in Agricultural and Forestry”.